Author Archives: Pete Comley

Latest UK inflation data – April 2017

Inflation increased sharply today by nearly half a percentage point. CPI rose to 2.7% and RPI to 3.5%.

As mentioned last month, predicting this month’s inflation numbers were going to be difficult. Although a number of price rises such as council tax, electricity and vehicle excise duty were likely to add to the inflation rate, the increases in petrol prices last year were also going to fall out of the calculation and so temper this.  However the official CPI measure rose more than most expected due to the two elements that ONS struggle to reliably measure i.e. clothing and airfares. Due to the later timing of Easter this year, both showed apparent marked rises in April 2017. Last year both numbers declined in the post Easter period then and so the overall effect is a sharp boost in apparent inflation this month.  The rises in both these elements will very likely reverse out next month and bring the headline rates back down. In addition, petrol prices have continued to decline since April (down 3p/litre), so it would not be surprising to see CPI back to around 2.5% in May.

The above said, it should be noted that core inflation has moved up sharply this month to 2.4% – its highest level for over four years. It is relatively unusual to see it that high and is probably a reflection of higher factory gate prices (3.6%) resulting from producer input prices (16.6%). However both these measures may well temper if sterling continues its recovery post the election.

ONS continue to promote their new CPIH measure (see here for more info). As predicted, it is now beginning to headline a lower inflation rate than even CPI shows – and many argue that CPI under-represents inflation vs RPI anyway (see here).  CPIH is lower because the Owner Occupier Housing (OOH) element it includes is just 2.2% and declining. This therefore drags down CPIH versus CPI which does not include it. On the positive side, the BBC appear to be still promoting the higher CPI measure and ignoring CPIH in their bulletins. This makes sense on many grounds – not least that the UK Statistics Authority have yet to recognise CPIH as a valid National Statistic.

The full ONS analysis can be found here.

Latest UK inflation data – March 2017

Inflation appeared largely unchanged today with CPIH (and CPI) remaining at 2.3% and RPI declining slightly to 3.1%.

There were two main reasons why inflation did not continue increasing. The first is the early timing of Easter in 2016, which has impacted some of the year-on-year comparisons. In particular, air fares were significantly higher in 2016 than in 2017 due to this factor and it also affected some other services. Secondly, the temporary drop in crude oil prices in February fed through to lower petrol prices in March 2017. This contrasts to the previous year when they had started to rise from their extreme lows in January/February 2016.

The above said, positive inflation was apparent in every single one of the categories that ONS measure – the first time this has happened for nearly three years. The impact of the recent rises in input prices (17.9%) and factory gate prices (3.6%) is now feeding through to the retail world. Goods inflation rose sharply to 2.5% (1.9%) and it exceeded service inflation for the first time in 5 years.

The rise in goods inflation was partly as a result of genuine rises in categories such as food. Food prices normally decline between February and March, but they increased this year. Rises were seen fairly broadly across the food sector and mainly reflects higher import prices.

However some of the increase in goods prices are probably erroneous and will fall out the calculation next month. For example, the sharp rises in alcohol and tobacco prices have more to do the with timing of the ONS data collection and the budget this year vs last year. In addition, the highly volatile ONS clothing and footwear index saw a rise this month which may well be reversed in April.

Therefore predicting next month’s inflation figure is going to be tricky. On the positive side, there are hikes in council tax and gas/electricity prices to factor in, as well as higher air fares over Easter. But this will be balanced out by reversals in the erroneous factors this month such as the apparent budget rises and clothing gyrations. In addition, this time last year, petrol prices rose sharply, whilst they are declining in 2017. The best guess is that inflation will remain around the same level or decline very slightly in April.

Indeed looking at the inflation stats elsewhere in Europe, shows that February numbers marked a high point and levels have come down a little for most countries. But the future path for UK and worldwide inflation very much depends a lot on crude oil and other commodity prices. Since the big decline in nearly all commodity prices in 2014/5, they have stabilised at historically low levels. If the next move in commodities was upwards, it would trigger a significant burst in worldwide inflation.

The full ONS analysis can be found here.

Latest UK inflation data – February 2017

UPDATE: Listen to Pete Comley talk about the latest inflation figures on Share Radio:

ShareRadio210317-2

Today saw the introduction of the new headline inflation measure of CPIH. I have blogged about this in detail over the last few days (here and here) and so this bulletin will initially focus on the general inflation trends of CPI before returning to CPIH.

The UK now has three measures of inflation being used by different stakeholders, RPI, CPI and now CPIH:

Inflation trends

There was a steep rise in inflation today with CPI going up 0.5% to 2.3% and RPI by 0.6% to 3.2%. These are the highest inflation levels we have seen in the UK for two and half years and above the Bank of England’s inflation target of 2%.

The main “driver” (no pun intended) for the increasing rate was car fuel prices which continued to rise in February and are now nearly 20p higher than this time last year. However, there were also rises across a number of other goods which follow on from the higher factory gate prices that have been seen in recent months. Input prices rose 19% in the latest period (a combination of the Brexit devaluation and higher commodity prices) and factory gate prices by 3.7%.

This means that goods inflation in CPI is now running at nearly 2% – having been largely negative for the last few years. Examples of goods with significant price rises over the last 12 months include: fish, coffee, many fruits and vegetables (from Iceberg lettuce to potatoes to grapes), laptops/tablets, cameras, and new cars.

Core inflation is up to 2% – its highest level since June 2014. The trend for inflation is that will probably carry on going up, but next month may see a decline in the speed of the rise with CPI/CPIH rising to around 2.5%. Thereafter once the electricity and council tax price rises kick in during April, we’ll likely see another leg up for inflation.

The above said, a lot depends on the global price of crude oil, as this quickly feeds into petrol prices. It has slipped back recently and this may temper increasing inflation over the next few months.

CPIH

ONS were lucky that on the day they switched the headline measure to CPIH that it came out the same number as CPI. Therefore criticism (see here) of their methods have been more limited than it might have been. However our analysis (see here) clearly indicates that as time goes by and the UK inflation rate rises, there is going to be a greater disparity between the two measures. CPIH may even be 0.3% lower than CPI by the end of the year.

If by then, the government has decided to switch the inflation measure used for benefits and pensions to CPIH, it could start to have an effect on living standards. Although some benefits are temporarily frozen, many are not. Those related to disability, carers, maternity and pensioners are still all being index linked to an inflation measure (CPI today).

Indexation of state pensions might also be reduced by CPIH. The Triple Lock on pensions ensures they rise by the minimum of 2.5%, earnings (currently 2.3%) and inflation (2.3% today). The Bank of England predict that CPI will rise to nearly 3% by the year end and so next time pensions get revised (in November), it will probably be by the rate of inflation. However should there have been a switch to CPIH by then, pensioners may well get less.

The latest report from the ONS can be found here and the data tables that include RPI here.

CPIH: The impact of adding housing to CPI

On the 21 March 2017, the UK will have a new headline inflation measure of CPIH. It is similar to the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) but attempts to add a measure of owner occupiers’ housing costs, hence the H.

In a separate post I have discussed the issues with this measure. In this one I want to specifically focus on the impact of adding housing to CPI. ONS have calculated what the CPIH rate would have been back to 2006. It is therefore possible to see whether it would have increased or decreased CPI. An initial look at the data suggests that sometimes one is higher, and sometimes the other. However looking more closely there is a strong correlation between the impact and the absolute level of CPI.

When CPI is low (below 2%), CPIH is usually higher than CPI. However when it is above the target 2% level, it usually adds to it. A simple correlation predicts that when CPI is 3%, CPIH may deduct nearly 0.3% from it. At 4% CPI, it could deduct 0.5%.

OOH scatterplot

The reason for this is that the Owner Occupiers’ Housing measure based on rents is a fairly stable number which has averaged just under 2%. Therefore when CPI is above that level, it acts as a drag on it downwards (and vice versa when CPI is below 2%).

Currently OOH is about 2.5%, but data from the Countryside Letting Index implies it will fall over the coming year. That is at the same time as the Bank of England is predicting that CPI will rise to nearly 3%. The net effect is likely to be that by this time next year, the new headline CPIH measure may well be 0.3% lower than had we stuck with CPI as the headline.

Why CPIH will be a poorer measure of headline UK inflation

On the Tuesday 21st March, the UK will be switching the headline inflation measure from CPI to CPIH. This is the first change in the main inflation measure for 14 years. This article examines what CPIH is, how it differs from CPI, why we are changing and what the implications might be.

CPIH is similar to the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) but attempts to add a measure of owner occupiers’ housing costs. The “H” effectively stands for “Housing”.

You might have expected that all our inflation indices include housing costs, as they are a significant part of most people’s lives. Indeed they are included in the UK’s original inflation statistic called RPI (Retail Prices Index). RPI fully weights in house prices, mortgage costs, council tax, water charges, repairs and maintenance, DIY costs, home insurance and ground rents.

However all housing-related costs are specifically excluded from CPI. The reason goes back to the EU. They invented a measure called the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the early 1990s. It was developed with the sole purpose of allowing comparisons to be made to determine if countries met the requirements of the Maastricht Treaty to join the Euro. At that time, European statisticians could not agree how to measure house prices, so they just compromised by leaving the whole area out of the measure. They argued it not matter, as HICP was never intended as a cost-of-living index, but was just a standardised benchmark for international comparisons.

The problem came when some countries, including the UK, started adopting HICP as their main inflation measure. The Bank of England did so in 2003 and renamed it CPI. The government may have been happy to use CPI because it usually produced lower inflation numbers. In the UK, CPI is on average approximately 1% lower than our original RPI measure. Lower inflation would have indicated good control over the economy and therefore reflected well on the government. Furthermore, as inflation is a key variable used to calculate GDP, lower inflation rates thus resulted in apparently higher economic activity, which again appearing to enhance any government’s prowess.

Nearly a decade after the introduction of CPI as the UK’s main measure and there was a general agreement that something needed to be done about the missing housing elements. Both ONS in the UK and Eurostat started to examine the options.

In late 2012 while the EU was reviewing the best solution, ONS unilaterally decided to act. It created a version of a measure called “Owner Occupiers’ Housing” costs, or OOH, and then added this to CPI to create a new index called CPIH. ONS decided not to follow the method established in RPI which includes all housing costs (see above list). In particular, they rejected the idea of including house prices or mortgage costs on theoretical grounds. They argued that house prices should be excluded as they were assets, and that mortgage costs were not really consumption costs. Both might be reasonable arguments from an academic point of view, but the alternative method they selected has a number of problems.

OOH calculates housing inflation using something called “Rental Equivalence” or RE for short. To calculate this, ONS have tried to estimate the average rental price of a UK home. They argued this might be a better way to calculate housing inflation; allowed relatively easy data collection; and that it is a reasonable proxy for the sum of all housing costs experienced by home owners. However there are reasonable grounds to doubt most of these assumptions – see discussion later.

As a further twist in the saga, ONS amended their definition of CPIH on the eve of it becoming the headline rate. On 13th March 2017, they decided to include Council Tax as well as OOH into CPI. Although useful to add in a genuine housing cost, the logic for not adding in all other housing expenditure such as ground rent, stamp duty, maintenance, etc was not explained. CPIH has therefore become an index based on “Rental Equivalence” but with one elements of what is called the “Payments Approach”.

The EU is now adopting a completely different method for calculating housing costs. This method is about to be proposed as a standard for all member states to collate. The EU thought it important that real house prices were included in some way and that all costs related to buying and maintaining a home should be included in their housing index. They have therefore adopted a method called “Net Acquisitions”, or NA for short.

There are reasons to think that even the EU approach leaves a certain amount to be desired. It is called “Net” because its main focus is on changes in the house prices of additional new homes. It ignores the price of the bulk of the housing sales i.e. of existing dwellings – hence the net bit. Ideally, they would have preferred to monitor the building costs of a house, having removed the land or asset price, but pragmatically decided this was too difficult to do. Despite these weaknesses, NA as a measure is significantly closer to the public’s expectations of a housing inflation statistic, as it at least includes a number of housing costs.

It is not just the EU who have taken issue with ONS’s method. The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), have challenged it on a number of grounds. They were so concerned about ONS’s introduction of CPIH that they removed its designation as a national statistic back in 2014 and on 10th March 2017 re-affirmed that they are still remain unhappy with the approach ONS has taken.

UKSA has three main issues with CPIH:

  1. The most significant is that the absolute values and trends derived from the ONS numbers appear not to reflect other published measures of housing costs. For example, if you compare OOH with the housing price index produced as part of RPI (see graph), you can see that two are very different. Not only does OOH usually underestimate true housing costs, the pattern of changes seen is different and additionally appears to suffer a significant lag.
    OOH vs RPI HousingRPI’s measure of rental costs has risen almost half as much again as OOH since 2005. Indeed when you look at all the individual elements of housing costs, all but mortgage interest costs have risen substantially more than ONS’s OOH measure. In addition, the OOH measure seems relatively impervious to the gyrations of real housing related costs.OOHPart of the reasons for rents being a poor measure of all housing costs become obvious with a bit more thought. Rents charged are impacted by many other factors than just input costs e.g. by supply and demand. Most rents exclude housing costs such as water and council tax and so can never represent the impact of changes in these factors. Many rental agreements get set once a year and as such are always going to be a lagging measure of the impact of price rises that have impacted in the intervening period. There are also other issues with the sample and weighting of those rental properties which ONS is using.
  2. The UKSA wanted ONS to improve the quality standards in to the data collection. The rental figures they use come from the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) in England, Rent Offices Wales, Rent Services Scotland and from ONS’s own data collectors in Northern Ireland. This is a problem as ONS does not own most of this data and has only secured access to it on aggregate levels. This means it cannot work out weights of property types by region for example. Furthermore the total sampling frame of all rental properties in the UK is unknown and agencies such as the VOA do not have a random sample of all of them. The data cannot therefore be totally representative of all UK rents.
    To make it worse, should there be a change in government housing benefit policy, the relevant data may no longer be collected. Similarly, should Jeremy Corbyn be elected, he has promised to bring in rent controls. At that point, the variation in the data will merely reflect government policy and it will become irrelevant for measuring housing inflation.
  3. Finally the UKSA has is a broader issue, namely the degree of distrust users have in ONS’s concept of CPIH. To quote their latest report “the degree of user scepticism and disagreement is unusual for a national statistic”. They claim that the ONS has not engaged with users to determine the way they would like to see a housing index calculated. It is unclear if the UKSA mean Eurostat particularly or the large volume of hostile voices from consultations on the subject, or both.

In spite of the UKSA’s concerns, ONS chose to press ahead with adopting CPIH. They had stated, even as late as 28 October 2016, that they would only make CPIH the main headline measure once it had been designated a national statistic again by the UKSA. It was therefore a surprise two weeks later, before receiving an update from the UKSA, that they took the decision to do so. The launch date was announced on 10th November 2016 – the day after Trump’s election. It therefore received little media coverage at the time and few are even aware of the change and what it might mean.

The change to CPIH as the headline measure is therefore going happen on 21st March 2017. So what are the main implications of the change to CPIH. There are five main ones:

  1. It risks under-reporting the true level of inflation in the UK in the future. If CPIH had been the headline inflation rate for the last 10 years, it would have averaged about 0.15% lower. The under-reporting problem appears worse when inflation is high i.e above 2.5% – a period we just about to enter again.
    Note though that during the recent period of very low inflation rates, CPIH has sometimes been slightly higher, as it was in January 2017 (1.9% vs 1.8%).
  2. It risks reducing standards of living in the UK. Benefits, tax allowances and many pensions are all linked to the headline inflation rate, as are many wage rises. Should inflation be lowered by adopting CPIH, this will gradually erode the standards of living of many people over time – particularly of the poor and elderly.
  3. It could affect monetary policy if/when the Bank of England’s target is changed to CPIH. Inflation may be made to appear lower than it really is, delaying action on increasing interest rates. Also were the BoE to assume OOH reflects UK housing cost inflation, they could under-estimate housing’s impact on the economy.
  4. It risks invalidating international inflation comparisons. Despite Brexit, it makes little sense for the UK to go it alone with a different method of calculating its headline inflation rate versus the EU.
  5. Finally it risks severely undermining trust in UK statistics. If the public sees a housing index being reported that bears little resemblance to their experiences and other measures, this will further erode faith in government. It might also result in considerable anger, as it might appear to some to be an underhand way to reduce benefits and pensions.

Concluding thoughts

Back in 2003 when RPI was dropped in favour of CPI, the impact of changing housing costs was lost from the UK’s main inflation measure. There is thankfully now a consensus that housing needs to be included again. However where there is no agreement is in how it should be measured. As is often the case with statistics, there are conflicting views on how the numbers should be compiled because of the difference in the way different stakeholders perceive them and want to use them.

But ONS must remember that the most important stakeholder is the public. They seek an accurate measure of how much the cost-of-living is increasing. They use these numbers to ensure wages, pensions and other contracts are correctly adjusted.
Given this audience, there are three tests that an important statistic such as inflation must pass:

  • It must be worked out using a simple method that is easy for the public to understand
  • It must have validity i.e. it measures what is claims to measure
  • It has to reliably and accurately portray the price rises actually experienced by the total population.

OOH arguably fails all of these tests and as a result CPIH is going to be a poor measure of headline inflation.

Latest UK inflation data – January 2017

shareradio
UPDATE: Listen to Pete talk about the latest data on Share Radio:


https://www.shareradio.co.uk/podcasts/inflation-hits-31-mon . . .

Headline inflation rose to 1.8% CPI and 2.6% RPI – their highest levels in over two years. The main reason for the rise was related to motor fuel being 17% more expensive in 2017 than a year before. Last January when Brent crude was around $30 a barrel, petrol and diesel cost around 102p/litre. Roll on a year and crude is above $55/barrel and petrol averaged 118p and diesel 124p (source: FleetNews)

CPI also increased because food prices did not fall as much as they did in 2016 – indeed next month we may well see food prices rise for the first time in nearly three years. This has little to do with the media headlines of crop failures in Spain, but is more a reflection of increased costs related to higher crude oil prices impacting global food production.

Inflation in January might well have been higher had it not been for the two proverbial ONS problem areas of clothing and airfares. This time ONS reckoned that clothing had declined more than last year and the aberrantly high airfares enhancing last month’s headline figure disappeared. The combined effect was probably to suppress CPI was 0.1% or more, i.e the true level was more like the 1.9% most analysts expected.

Inflation rises coming

Inflation is undoubtedly heading higher as we are seeing continued rises in food prices. Fish seems to be a good bellwether here – probably because its price is particularly affected both by higher oil prices in running trawlers and by sterling’s depreciation (as we import most of the fish we eat). Fish prices are up 3.1% year-on-year. That compares to them falling for the last two years – they declined 4.1% last January.

We also have a raft of gas and electricity price rises about to hit the market. Npower are increasing their electricity costs by 15% and gas by 5% on 16th March, for example. Most other utilies are following suit.

Add to that the latest Producer Prices Index shows factory gate prices rising at 3.5% and manufacturing material input prices by 20%+ mainly due to oil and metal commodity prices. The latter is the highest level seen since 2008.

The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report is predicting CPI will be 1% higher by this time next year and will remain in the range of 2-3% for the best part of the next three years. However how much inflation persists probably depends a lot on what happens to crude oil prices. Should the current rebound trend start to falter, inflation will probably come back down. Interestingly, there is no sign yet of service inflation starting to rise along with goods inflation and core inflation remains steady at 1.6%.

Inflation: an international perspective

Most people think that inflation is primarily affected by  specific UK factors. Interestingly it is highly correlated around the globe in developed nations – mainly because it is so strongly influenced in the short-term by global commodity prices. The latest data from the EU shows inflation taking off markedly. Across the whole EU, it has risen 1.2% in the space of two months to now stand at 1.8%. There are estimates that it may have risen to around 3% in Spain in January for example.

The trend is similar in the US too. The latest data (December 2016) shows it rising to 2.1% (from 0.8% last July). The January data (due soon) will undoubtedly show another rise confirming that the rising trend is very much an international one within developed markets.

CPIH

Finally, next month’s inflation figures will see the ONS switch to using CPIH as their main benchmark measure. This is in spite of the many problems and flaws with the measure (see here) and the fact that it is still does not have the credentials of a “national statistic”. In the short term, it will act to raise the headline figure a little as the Owner Occupier’s Housing costs element it includes is currently running at 2.5%. For example in January 2017, CPIH was 2.0% compared to just 1.8% for CPI. More on this next month…

The full ONS statistics can be found here.

Latest UK inflation data – December 2016

CPI inflation rose today to 1.6% (RPI 2.5%) – their highest rates in over two years. There are two key forces behind this as we’ve noted before:
– petrol prices have been increasing and are significantly higher than a year ago
– food prices have started to increase.

The apparent increase in December to 1.6% is probably slightly ahead of the true rate (1.5%?) due to ONS recording markedly higher air fares in December. ONS consistently struggle to measure them and they are subject to a high degree of volatility – this time probably exaggerating CPI.

The full ONS data can be found here.

Freddo

There has been much in the media again recently of the impact of Brexit on UK prices. This time it is the proposed 20% price increase of the children’s chocolate bar Freddo from 25p to 30p – see here. The manufacturers say the rise is due to the increased commodity price of cocoa. There is certainly an element of truth in this and I suspect when the decision to increase its price was taken – possibly early last autumn – sterling cocoa prices were at a three year high, in part because the Brexit devaluation.

shareradioHowever much has happened since then and because of good harvests in West Africa, cocoa prices have plummeted 30% even in sterling terms since their peaks last summer. Therefore the recent rise in Freddo’s price is possibly more questionable in this light. Listen to my discussion about it on Share Radio here:

Inflation expert Pete Comley explains soaring Freddo prices

/podcasts/inflation-expert-pete-comley-explains-soaring-fre . . .

Latest UK inflation data – November 2016

UPDATE: Listen to Pete talk about the figures on Share Radio: https://ws.sharethis.com/podcasts/what-is-driving-the-increase-in-inflation-13-dec-16/

CPI inflation picked up to 1.2% today and RPI to 2.2%. (Incidentally, these were exactly our predictions last month).
predictionWhat is driving inflation higher is a combination of rising oil prices and the impact of the fall in the price of sterling. ONS also talk of changes in the prices of clothing and airfares, but as we’ve discussed many times, these are both items that ONS struggle to measure accurately and so appear volatile. The changes in both of these are mere noise in the data.

THE IMPACT OF THE OIL PRICE

What is most important currently in determining the UK inflation rate is the price of petrol. This time last year, global crude oil prices headed below $30 a barrel and petrol prices here in the UK towards £1/litre. This year the opposite trend is in place. Yesterday crude prices hit their highest since July 2015 and despite the recent pick up in Sterling, this is going to continue to feed through to higher petrol prices in the New Year. As the table below shows, unleaded petrol may be in the range 118p-120p a litre in January – some 15-18% higher than the previous year – that will add 0.7% to the UK inflation on its own.

Unleaded petrol prices: 2015 2016 Difference
September 111p 111p 0
October 109p 113p +4p
November 107p 116p +9p
December 103p 114p +11p
January 102p 118p-120p? +16-18p

Source: FleetNews

STERLING DEVALUATION

The decreasing value of Sterling is now beginning to have an impact on inflation too. Input prices for companies are up 12.9% in the last year and the prices they charge for goods leaving factories are up 2.3%. Goods inflation in CPI went positive for the first time in two years and stood at 0.2% In November. ONS highlight a few items such as computers – up 3.2% in a month and also evidence of Unilever’s increases in bleach and cleaning products. Other imported household goods (e.g. leather sofas) are higher as are some core food prices such as bread and dairy products.

GLOBAL INFLATION

Despite the media focus on the rise of UK inflation being an effect of Brexit, it is primarily part of a global inflationary trend driven by commodity prices. Declining oil prices in 2015 sent a deflationary shock across the world. That is now unwinding as crude prices recover. The recent rises in the inflation rate in the UK mirror those in many other European countries including Baltic ones, Spain/Portugal, Germany/Austria and Switzerland. (The pattern is also the same in the US and China too).

euro-inflation

The above said, we still live in a generally low inflation world which is a result of the overhang of the 2008 financial crisis and demographic pressures. Inflation will continue to rise short-term due to the oil price change but this is unlikely to herald a long-term change in global inflation rates (unless governments start printing massive amounts of money, of course).

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (=RPI)

Finally, last week saw the Bank of England publish its quarterly survey of consumer inflation perceptions. As we saw in the last report in August, the consumer is fairly convinced that UK inflation is running higher than the official CPI rate. Their average estimates (2.3%) were very close to the RPI rate of 2.2% in November (as they were at 1.8% in August). The reasons why RPI probably more accurately reflects UK inflation are explored here.

The full ONS report this month can be found here.